The Michael Flynn Timeline

This is mostly stream of consciousness writing, but bear with me. There are lots of questions about the Flynn indictment.

A reminder: The story about Michael Flynn’s guilty plea and his cooperation with Robert Mueller’s investigation broke less than a week ago, even though it feels like it happened last Christmas. In the time since the announcement, there has been a lot of debate about the significance of Flynn’s guilty plea and its affect on the larger investigation.

The first point of debate centers around looking at the exact activity that Flynn was engaged in: Talking to the Russians without the authorization of the United States government, specifically the President (Barack Obama). Flynn admitted to speaking to Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak during the Trump team’s transition and then lying to the FBI about those conversations.

The first question is about Flynn’s activity: Was it actually illegal? Many legal experts point to the Logan Act and say that Flynn’s conversations are in clear violation of it. However, legal experts of all backgrounds simultaneously admit that the Logan Act is rarely, if ever enforced (it has been used successfully in prosecution on only one occasion). The Logan Act has a clear intention in this case: It prevents an incoming Administration from interfering with the policy of an outgoing Administration; “The United States only has one President at a time,” is the standard explanation. The Logan Act comes up more frequently in this case because Flynn’s activity is pretty much as clear of a violation of it as one can see. Following Russia’s interference in the US election in 2016, the Obama Administration, along with Congress, took steps to punish the Russians. The main step was expelling 35 Russian diplomats from the United States. This may seem like small potatoes to the layman, but a removal of even one diplomat requires a thorough investigation and a lot of moving parts, including getting members of Congress on board.

Flynn’s conversations with Kislyak involved him deliberately seeking to undermine the Administration’s very serious and punitive actions; the US Government was not tip-toeing around the idea that Russia interfered and they/we were angry. It’s also why the Logan Act discussion is even happening. Most legal scholars do not take the Logan Act seriously (with good reason; its constitutionality is debatable), but Flynn’s actions seem like the very sort of thing it was designed to prevent. Wrap your head around this: The United States government via the intelligence community conclude in the Fall of 2016 that Russia intervened in our election. The Obama Administration moved to punish Russia for doing so. The Trump Administration goes behind the Obama’s Administration’s back in order to subvert that response, guaranteeing the Russians that they would work to undo whatever punishment was being inflicted. Logan Act violation or not, that borders on treason.

The second point of debate centers on Flynn’s actions after speaking with Kislyak: Why did Flynn lie about it? The simple answer is that Flynn lied about his conversations with Kislyak because his conversations with him looked bad politically. The problem with that answer comes in two parts: For one, the Trump Administration stated on multiple occasions that what Flynn did was not wrong. Trump stated it right at the time he fired Flynn and he said so recently, when he complained that Hillary Clinton was not being investigated. The Administration’s official answer for firing Flynn was that he lied to Mike Pence…not because he spoke to Kislyak. The second problem with that answer is that Mike Flynn should have probably known that having discussions with a foreign diplomat was probably not all that wrong (more on that later), so it’s weird that he felt that he needed to lie about it.

The more complicated answer is that Flynn lied because he and other people in the Administration were trying to hide “something” that involved their communication with Russia. To date, we know that Jared Kushner, Jeff Sessions, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Jr., Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, and it looks like Mike Pence all lied about their contacts with the Russians during the campaign. Why did they lie?

We know a few things about the Russian investigation right now. For one, we know the Trump Campaign was aware that the Russians were interfering and wanted to help him win the election. That is clear from the Trump Tower meeting, Don Jr.’s contacts with Wikileaks, and it’s also clear from the Papodopoulos plea agreement. Despite these contacts, the Campaign did not alert the FBI. We also know that Flynn had promised Russian officials that the sanctions would be gone after Trump got into office.

The fill-in-the-blanks moment occurs now, at this point in the story. The assumption is that because of Russia’s help with the election — which the Trump campaign was aware of — there was a quid pro quo agreement in place to repay the Russians with the easing of sanctions (a long-time Putin goal) and the restoration of status to foreign diplomats.

There is a counter argument to that narrative: That Flynn’s guilty plea should be read at face value and the reason he was not charged with any other crimes other than lying to the FBI is because Mueller had nothing else on him. That position has been argued by the likes of Preet Bharhara, who is very smart; and Andrew McCarthy, who is a clown. However, it doesn’t pass muster for two reasons: 1. If all Flynn was guilty of was lying to the FBI in the hopes of concealing his — presumably innocent — conversations with Kislyak, then he would have just waited for a presidential pardon, as President Trump is still fond of Flynn. 2. Flynn is a nutcase but he is also not stupid. As a seasoned military veteran and, in some cases, a spy for the US, he must have known that if the only thing hanging over his head was a Logan Act violation, his hand was pretty strong. It’s not really something an expert like Flynn would lie about. And Flynn had to know that lying to the FBI was a far more serious crime than a Logan Act violation. Add into all of this Mike Flynn’s statement, in which he explicitly said he was cooperating with Mueller’s team. The gut feeling here is that Flynn was acutely aware of the legal danger he was in and starting talking to Mueller.

So, is it possible that this starts and ends with Flynn lying about his conversations with Kislyak in order to spare the incoming Administration a political headache? That the entire Russia investigation centers around a Logan Act violation which led to the President obstructing justice? Yes, that’s totally possible. But given the way Mueller has played the investigation so far, and given the actions of the Trump campaign, it’s important not to view Flynn’s charge in a vacuum. The Trump Campaign lied repeatedly about its contacts with the Russians. It’d be really cool if we could find out why.